S&P 5007,818.93▲ record, Oct 6Shiller CAPE41.62nd-highest ever10-yr Treasury5.36%▲ 24-yr highFed funds3.75–4.00%▲ hike, Sep 16Brent crude$105.69Oct 13Q3 EPS growth, est.+29.6%FactSetTop-10 weight39%of S&P 500Implied ERP4.20%Damodaran, Oct 1Nvidia~$5.8trnmarket value0DTE share59%SPX options, 2025Active funds lagging79%large-cap, 2025U.S. real return6.6%/yr1900–2025
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The weekly briefing · October 16th 2026

The week, explained

The stories that moved markets and the economy this week, in five minutes.

The week in brief

Three to read

An oil tanker squeezed through a narrow passage between towering cliffs
Energy

The strait that shook the world

Seven months after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the bill for the biggest energy-supply shock on record is still arriving

A hand pulling a red brake lever on a marble central-bank column
The Federal Reserve

Back on the brakes

An oil shock has pushed America’s central bank into its first rate rise since 2023. Kevin Warsh may not be done

Workers shovelling glowing computer chips into a vast industrial furnace
Artificial intelligence

The $700bn question

America’s tech giants are spending like railway barons. Investors are starting to ask what they will get back

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The week, explained

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