S&P 5007,818.93▲ record, Oct 6Shiller CAPE41.62nd-highest ever10-yr Treasury5.36%▲ 24-yr highFed funds3.75–4.00%▲ hike, Sep 16Brent crude$105.69Oct 13Q3 EPS growth, est.+29.6%FactSetTop-10 weight39%of S&P 500Implied ERP4.20%Damodaran, Oct 1Nvidia~$5.8trnmarket value0DTE share59%SPX options, 2025Active funds lagging79%large-cap, 2025U.S. real return6.6%/yr1900–2025
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Economy

Central banks, inflation, trade and growth.

A hand pulling a red brake lever on a marble central-bank column
The Federal Reserve

Back on the brakes

An oil shock has pushed America’s central bank into its first rate rise since 2023. Kevin Warsh may not be done

A judge’s gavel striking a toll barrier across a road lined with shipping containers
Trade

Tariffs, take two

The Supreme Court struck down America’s emergency tariffs. Eight months on, most of them have been rebuilt on other legal foundations

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